The accelerated pace of development in emerging markets, particularly over the past decade has in large part been due to a wider adoption of capitalism, the transfer of knowledge and technologies and the growing importance of trade as a composition of the "Gross Domestic Product". These changes have had direct consequences on the earnings of a growing number of firms that have seen their revenue composition becoming more dependent on foreign market sales, making them less reliant and by consequence more resiliant to domestic matters.
Investor mindset, on the other hand, has been dragging its feet in acknowledging and adapting to these changes. This is particularly true for the institutional segment of the market, in particular pension plans that still tend to retain a significant "home" bias in their investment policy. Such biases can have material repercussions on both risk and returns over the long term, especially in the context of the current environment, one plagued by a rise in uncertainty and a greater perception of risk.
Classifying firms by country of incorporation is not only erroneous but also risky because it provides no information on geographic exposure to revenue generation. A European firm, for example, could have most of its sales generated in economies that are outside of Europe, so does it make sense to classify the firm as European? This is not to say that the country of incorporation does not have any influence on the value of the firm through corporate governance and labor laws, it does, albeit to a lesser extent than what most people might think.
The "risk" element comes from the fact that by classifying a firm by country of incorporation rather than sales breakdown, you may inadvertently be managing a portfolio that has a very high concentration on a particular market or economy. Diversifying this risk requires access to sales breakdown data, which may prove challenging to obtain. Once the country bias factor removed, the practitioner will not only be able to mitigate the inherent risk of this "traditional" approach, but also maybe concentrate on other factors such as valuation multiples to increase the probability of enhancing risk adjusted returns over the long run.
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This document has been produced purely for the purpose of information and does not therefore constitute an invitation to invest, nor an offer to buy or sell anything nor is it a contractual document of any sort. The opinions on this blog are those of the author which do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Lobnek Wealth Management. No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the author. Contents subject to change without notice.