The next crucial date in the Euro zone saga will be the 17 of June when Greece goes to the polls to effectively decide if they want stay in or out of the Euro. Greece might be a small player in the grand scheme of things but the role of market psychology is a multiple of this and is therefore what really matters.
A Greek exit could have severe repercussions on the rest of the Euro zone as it has the potential of triggering a serial bank run in a number of countries in which the banking system remains weak and for which the future European Stability Mechanism (ESM) is poorly equipped to handle. The uncertainty is huge and very palpable with Treasury and German Bund yields that are at record lows.
It seems that no degree of assurance by authorities can suffice to put minds at ease as there is so much that could go wrong and there are signs that things are actually getting worse.
As markets become more convinced that the situation is actually worsening, the sentiment will just accelerate the process of disintegration, like with a vacuum cleaner where the closer you get to the tip, the stronger the sucking power becomes. We currently see this phenomenon with Spain and its banking sector which is experiencing a sharp rise in bad loans, triggering a downgrade in credit rating which in turn is making it more difficult for the country to borrow. This is, after all, what pushed countries like Ireland and Greece to seek external help in the first place and although the European authorities and the IMF still have money to spare in their coffers, contagion will eventually make a bailout impossible, triggering a crisis the likes of which have not been seen since the 1930's.
I don't want to sound too alarmist, but as any good practitioner will tell you, it is important to think of all possible scenarios, starting with the worst one.
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