29 August, 2011

Rebalancing vs. Buy & Hold

In these tumultuous times, one wonders what sort of investment strategy to adopt. The modern portfolio theory rule of thumb would be to "stick to one's guns" by remaining thoroughly diversified and keeping a disciplined approach to rebalancing the portfolio when asset class weights deviate "too far away" from a defined optimal value.
Rebalancing can actually be tricky in times of high volatility not only because it may require quick action to counter large sways in the market but also because of the additional transaction costs that frequent "adjustment" trading could entail.
There is, however, an optimal level of rebalancing that can be implemented, depending on market volatility conditions. Studies show, for example, that rebalancing (adjusted for transaction costs) outperforms buy and hold strategies in periods of high volatility where markets experience sharp reversals. The opposite occurs in bull or bear market conditions, where the markets follow a clear trend. In this environment, buy and hold strategies tend to outperform rebalancing.
An optimal portfolio allocation strategy would therefore be one that is a function of the volatility levels of the markets. When volatility levels spike, as they have over the last couple of weeks, it would trigger a rebalancing signal for the portfolio. This could be in the form of a tightening of the rebalancing band limits of the respective asset classes. In contrast, when volatility levels are subdued, those same band limits should widen, reducing the probability of rebalancing but not eliminating them altogether, which would be risky, especially in transition periods from low volatility to high volatility.

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This document has been produced purely for the purpose of information and does not therefore constitute an invitation to invest, nor an offer to buy or sell anything nor is it a contractual document of any sort. The opinions on this blog are those of the author which do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Lobnek Wealth Management. No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the author. Contents subject to change without notice.