21 July, 2010

Deep in a crisis...


We are still in a crisis, it doesnt take much to figure that out but it is also most clearly evident when looking at equity market performance figures (see above). If we take the period from the end of July '07 to date, it is striking to note from the graph above that not only the broad equity market index is negative but this is also the case for all sectors (red bars) without exception! I would also add that there is a wide disparity in performances amongst the sectors and that a large number of sectors still have some way to go before they become positive again.

By far, and not surprisingly so, the largest loss comes from the financials sector that is still reeling from the 2008 blowup. It is also interesting to note that materials and energy are in better shape (relatively speaking of course) mainly as a result of the emerging market factor, information technology because of product cycles (firms are replacing their aged computers), and healthcare and consumer staples mainly because these are traditionally defensive sectors that tend to perform well when the economy is limping.

As the economy steadily improves (we expect this process to take some time), growth sectors such as consumer discretionary, IT, Telecom, Energy, Materials and maybe Financials (if they can get their act together) are likely to outperform the rest.

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