21 July, 2010

Deep in a crisis...


We are still in a crisis, it doesnt take much to figure that out but it is also most clearly evident when looking at equity market performance figures (see above). If we take the period from the end of July '07 to date, it is striking to note from the graph above that not only the broad equity market index is negative but this is also the case for all sectors (red bars) without exception! I would also add that there is a wide disparity in performances amongst the sectors and that a large number of sectors still have some way to go before they become positive again.

By far, and not surprisingly so, the largest loss comes from the financials sector that is still reeling from the 2008 blowup. It is also interesting to note that materials and energy are in better shape (relatively speaking of course) mainly as a result of the emerging market factor, information technology because of product cycles (firms are replacing their aged computers), and healthcare and consumer staples mainly because these are traditionally defensive sectors that tend to perform well when the economy is limping.

As the economy steadily improves (we expect this process to take some time), growth sectors such as consumer discretionary, IT, Telecom, Energy, Materials and maybe Financials (if they can get their act together) are likely to outperform the rest.

12 July, 2010

Paul the Oracle...

Now that the World Cup is over, there is growing intrigue on the impressive "psychic" abilities of Paul the Octopus. For those that have no clue what I am referring to, Paul happens to be an octopus that lives in a marine life center in Germany that was summoned by its owners to choose the winners for all seven matches in which the German team participated and the very last match of the World Cup in where he was asked to pick the ultimate winner of the World Cup.
Surprisingly, he was able to pick the winner in every single one of the eight events. I say surprising because from a purely probabilistic perspective, the chances of being 100% correct is pretty low.
With 8 events in total, assuming that each event is completely independent from the other, there is a total of 2^8 (2 to the power of 8) or 256 possible sequences of outcomes. The actual probability of getting it right in all 8 events is in fact 0.5^8 (0.5 to the power of 8) which comes to a total probability of 0.39%! That is incredibly low and to assume that it is purely due to chance is difficult to believe.
So...if Paul truly does have a gift, who knows what his psychic abilities could do to the business of forecasting the markets! Hedge fund managers would finally be able to claim with all honesty that their "black box" strategy is truly a black box, even to them.

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