More gloom and doom before the boom?

Taking a casual look at a few key indicators suggests that we should be embracing for further market turmoil in the coming year.The credit crunch which sprouted amid a severe housing recession shows no signs of abating despite significant efforts by policymakers to reassure investors that the crisis is "under control". Confidence is far from being restored and as a result, businesses and households are having trouble obtaining credit (just when they need it most) which means that we can expect large cutbacks on investments and consumption respectively, contributing in worsening the recession.
Both the 2 year breakeven spread (which measures the differential between 2 year nominal treasury yields and that of inflation protected securities) and the freefall in commodity prices corroborate with the expectations of a deepening recession through a deflationary cycle that is likely to dominate over the next two years.
If we add to this the loss in effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's key monetary policy tool (the result of a liquidity trap that forms as nominal interest rates approach 0 percent) and a Tobin's Q ratio (a well known ratio that compares the market value of a firm to that of its replacement or book value), signaling further downside for global stock markets, there frankly is not much out there to cheer about.
But then again, the forecasting profession is more notorious for having a dismal track record which means that the extreme bearishness that is being suggested at present may be nothing more than a giant smokescreen.