14 October, 2008

Two challenges to the crisis...

The most pressing issue at hand has been to put an end to the panic that has been gripping markets across the world, leading to a flurry of bankruptcies as companies struggle for liquidity. The liquidity crunch can only be unwound if the long lost confidence in the financial system is restored and this can only happen if the government steps in as the ultimate guarantor for the majority of interbank transactions (a proposition originally put forth by the British). What we are in fact witnessing right now is exactly that: an unprecedented degree of government intervention. The counterparty risk between banks is now shifting from the borrowing bank to the respective governments which should help eliminate any doubts that may still be lingering. One of the closely watched barometers that measures the degree of confidence amongst banks is what is known as the TED spread which measures the spread between LIBOR and Treasuries. Although it has declined a little since last week, it still remains at record levels and, until it drops significantly, the credit crunch can only continue to corrode the markets.
Notice that the global government bailout program is in stark contrast to what happened at the early stages of the great depression of the 1930's. The Federal Reserve of that time effectively left the banks to fail which, with hindsight, led to a significant worsening of the crisis. The risks of letting a bank fail are huge as observed most recently with the Lehman case which led to a full blown credit crunch. Bernanke, who is a scholar of that period, is clearly trying to avoid a repeat of the great depression which explains the shear scale of the bailout program (although I am skeptical that the amount that has been put forth will suffice to put things in order).
Resolving the confidence issue, however, does not mean that the crisis itself will be resolved. The economies are facing a real threat of a protracted recession on the horizon. Averting, let alone limiting, a full blown recession won't be easy considering the amount of deleveraging remaining and the fact that housing prices still have some distance to go before reaching bottom. As mentioned before, this won't happen at least until sometime in the second half of next year.

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