There has been much debate lately as to the degree of correlation between developed and emerging markets. Looking back, a sharp downturn in developed market economies would almost certainly drag the rest of the world with it. This was mainly due to the dependency of export oriented emerging markets to the vagaries of developed market consumers. In the era of globalization the dynamics have changed somewhat as a number of emerging markets have adopted the capitalistic consumer oriented market economy by embarking on a radical course in reform leading to rapid industrialization and the emergence of a distinct middle class. The emergence of the domestic consumer has had a somewhat cushioning effect (at least so far) on the impact of external demand shocks as seen by the remarkable resilience of the emerging markets to the housing and credit led turmoil. Does this mean that the relationship has moved from traditionally high correlation to one of low correlation? Not necessarily if we consider that the strength of third world economies may be what is keeping the crisis laden developed markets afloat. If that is confirmed, it would indeed be a historical first, a sort of reversal of roles.
This new role for emerging markets doesn't come without perils, however, as we observe a general surge in inflation in many of the commodity oriented economies of developing countries. Ever since the Federal Reserve began slashing interest rates, those countries that have currencies that are closely linked to the dollar have had to follow suit. With economies that are already running at capacity, rate cuts have had the effect of pushing up prices as supply struggles with surging demand. There has been some attempt to revalue the currency such as in China, but this has not been sufficient to cap inflation. As the Fed takes a pause from its accommodative stance, the dollar is showing signs of bottoming and if the crisis does abate, it will have a much needed alleviating effect on red hot emerging market economies.
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