19 July, 2007

The fed in a state of benign paralysis?

Reading the tea leaves of Bernanke's recent comments, it seems that we are in for a protracted period of inaction on behalf the fed's target rate (well, technically, its protracted already considering that it has been a year since the fed put an end to its tightening policy). The housing slump shows no end in sight but at the same time there is growing fears that ever so costly food and oil will eventually trigger a jump in inflation expectations. Not that there is anything wrong with sitting tight when it comes to rates. When visibility is poor and when you have two forces pulling in opposite directions as seems to be the case at the moment, doing nothing may very well be the prudent thing to do! Not that we are in the midst of a stagflationary slump considering the relatively strong growth rates and an inflation level that is considered tamed. There has been some criticism of the Fed for prioritizing the core inflation figures at the expense of the headline rate. The original reason behind switching from headline to core was to remove the excess volatility that food and oil contributed to the figures. But things have changed since, with food and oil prices more stable and hence the flak directed towards the fed. The counter argument has been that even with more stable prices, the ultimate measure might still be the core because its only if the core is rising that we know that the rise in oil or food prices have trickled into the rest of the economy. Maybe we should have a compromise, say a dynamically weighted composite of the two measures? Or maybe even invent a new measure? Food for thought, I guess.

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