20 October, 2009

Emerging signs of a long period of anemic growth?

The various high octane government actions/interventions over the past two years have clearly had an impact on the global economy, namely by putting a stop on the market freefall, the worst of which occurred in 2008. Those very same markets are now pricing a very high degree of optimism regarding the future, almost as if someone had pressed on a reset button to give the economies of the world a new lease of life, as if the crisis itself was nothing more than a bad dream! Certainly there is significant variation in the health of the economies across the globe, with those of developed countries looking far more sickly than those that belong to the emerging league. No wonder, considering that most of the financial mess was not only concocted in first world countries but was also largely consumed by them. Emerging markets, on the other hand, emerge from the mess relatively unscathed with far less leverage and in a much better shape structurally than at any time in the past. So now that we know which horse to bet on, can the dizzying ascent of the global stock markets be justified in any way? It is the developed markets that worry me and although there have been a flurry of upbeat figures over the past couple of months that would suggest the worst is behind us, more recent figures on housing and prices are less comforting as they increasingly suggest that we are entering a period of anemic growth.

DISCLAIMER

This document has been produced purely for the purpose of information and does not therefore constitute an invitation to invest, nor an offer to buy or sell anything nor is it a contractual document of any sort. The opinions on this blog are those of the author which do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Lobnek Wealth Management. No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the author. Contents subject to change without notice.